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UNCLAS SEOUL 000270

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PREL KS

SUBJECT: WILL THE YOUNGER GENERATIONS ELECT THE NEXT KOREAN
PRESIDENT?

11_1 . (U) SUMMARY: Historically, regionalism has played an

important role in Korean presidential elections. But in
2002, young voters successfully mobilized and helped Roh
Moo-hyun edge out Lee Hoi-chang by a 2.2 percent margin. The
media had a frenzy touting the "youth revolution," and the
data seems to back that up. Upon closer analysis of regional
voting statistics, young voters appeared to be less
influenced by regional tendencies than the older voters. In
addition, the technology-aided mobilization practices that
younger voters used in 2002 have become the norm for
elections. But the next presidential election in December
2007 will be the true test of whether the "youth revolution"
was indeed a revolution. END SUMMARY.

J_2 . (U) Regionalism in South Korea — particularly in the

southwest (Honam) and southeast (Yeongnam) — is notorious;
voters not only choose their hometown candidates, but they
often vote against candidates from the rival region. This
was one reason why Kim Young-sam (Yeongnam) and Kim Dae-jung
(Honam) publicly pledged not to run against each other in the
1987 presidential elections, because they knew their regions
would split the opposition voters. (NOTE: Despite their
promise, they ran against each other anyway, and their
regions voted exactly as expected -- which gave ruling party
candidate Roh Tae-woo the presidency. END NOTE.) However,
after the impact the younger generations made on the 2002
presidential elections, the press speculated that Koreans
were starting to vote more along generational lines than
strictly regional ones.

DEFINING THE GENERATIONS

1I_3 . (U) The Korean War was the event that defined today's

older generation in Korea. Ideologically, those who were old
enough to remember the Korean War tend to be strongly
anti-Communist and staunchly pro-American. They also tend to
view North Koreans as enemies and hold strong opinions about
how to deal with the North Korean regime. Politically and
socially, this generation is conservative. Economically,
those over 50 tend to subscribe to the "growth first"
ideology, which prioritized economic growth over everything
else, including human rights. Demographically , those aged 50
and older make up 24 percent of the population (11,387,000
people), per November 2005 census figures released by the
National Statistics Office.

11.4 . (U) Much has been written about Korea's 386 Generation

those who are in their 30s, went to college in the 80s, and
were born in the 60s. (NOTE: This moniker first appeared in
the 1990s, so most people of this are now in their 40s. END
NOTE.) The two defining events for this generation were the
Gwangju Massacre and the democratic movement in the 1980s.
Although young at the time, this generation experienced the
Park Chung-hee authoritarian regime in the 1960s and 1970s,
then demonstrated against associated military regimes in the
1980s. The student demonstrators also urged immediate
reunification with North Korea and often joined forces in
solidarity with the labor unions. Ideologically, the 386
Generation is characterized by being anti-American and
sometimes pro-North Korean; it rejects traditional models of
power and politics, such as old-school networking.
Politically, this generation is the most progressive and
active. Economically, it does not embrace the growth first
ideology like those over 50; it prioritizes human rights over
economic growth. Demographically , those in their 30s and 40s
are a big group, representing 34 percent of the population.

15. (U) Many of the 386 Generation have moved into
positions where they can influence politics or public
opinion. A few, such as prominent 386 leader Im Jong-seok,
are now lawmakers. President Roh, who defended many student
demonstrators during the 1980s, has surrounded himself with
advisors who were demonstrators as students. Sociology
professor Park Kyung-tae of Sungkonghoe University told
poloff that many 386ers also became journalists and TV news
producers. Their positions of influence dictate the
sociopolitical conversations and explain some of the more
progressive story topics.

16. (U) The 20-something generation (or Generation-C ) is
the first Korean generation with no mature memory of an
authoritarian regime. Generation C grew up after Korea

became democratized and takes free press for granted. As a
result, they are sometimes apathetic politically. This
generation is also called Generation C because they are so
wired. (NOTE: the "C" can stand for cyber, computer, or
community. END NOTE.) Although not an event per se, the
Internet boom defines this generation above all else. Young
Koreans embraced social-networking blog sites (such as
Cyworld, comparable to MySpace or Facebook and recently
introduced in the U.S.) much earlier than their counterparts
in the U.S., thanks in part to the proliferation of broadband
Internet (NOTE: Nearly 80 percent of Korean households have
high-speed, broadband Internet, according to Ministry of
Information and Communication June 2006 data. END NOTE.)

17. (U) Ideologically, Generation C tends to be more
conservative than the 386 Generation, but resists being
identified with a particular ideology. Generation C cannot
be identified as anti-American (although many participated in
anti-American demonstrations after two young schoolgirls were
accidentally killed by USFK soldiers in 2002). They are not
unquestioningly anti-North Korean like the older generation,
nor as pro-North Korean as the 386. Economically, this
generation takes a developed society for granted. However,
because it experienced the Asian financial crisis of the late
90s, it has a complicated view of money, at times careless
about consumerism and conservative about saving. Those in
their 20s are also characterized as being self-centered and
individualistic, as opposed to the other generations'
tendency toward more socially responsible outlook.
Demographically, those in their 20s make up 15.5 percent of
the population, or 7,334,000 potential voters. Those who are
currently 15-19 represent 6.5 percent of the population;
those in this group who will turn 19 before the December 2007
election will be able to vote.

USING TECHNOLOGY TO MOBILIZE YOUNG VOTERS

1[8 . (U) Generation C and the 386 Generation were credited

with electing Roh Moo-hyun as president. This is due in part
to their mastery of Internet and cell phone technology to
mobilize voters. When former candidate Chung Mong-jun

withdrew support of Roh the night before the election, people
posted messages on Web sites and sent cell phone text
messages urging people to maintain support for Roh. This
mobilized youngsters to vote and also changed the minds of
people who had been planning on voting for the Democratic
Labor Party candidate, Kwon Young-ghil. Roh ended up
defeating Lee Hoi-chang by a mere 2.2% margin, or 570,980
votes. The Internet was also credited with politicizing
people who would otherwise be apathetic, because "netizens"
are exposed more frequently to political Web sites.

1[9 . (U) One media tool in particular that helped facilitate

the mobilization was OhmyNews , an online news site where
netizen reporters can write their own articles, which are
then fact-checked by staff before posting. This Web site was
created by 386er Oh Yeon-ho, who has said, "My generation,
the 386 generation, were (sic) in the streets fighting in the
80s against the military dictatorship. Now, 20 years later,
we are combat-ready with our Internet." OhmyNews is where
many netizens submitted articles urging people to get out the
vote .

11.10. (U) After the 2002 election, the media widely reported

that " generationalism" had the potential to overcome
regionalism in Korean politics. A Joong-Ang Ilbo survey
conducted in late 2002 found that 48.8 percent of those in
their 20s and 30s had voted for Roh for the sake of a
"replacement of generations" or "generational transfer."
Critics have remarked that the media may have fabricated a
myth of generational conflict where none actually existed.

GENERATION VS. REGION

11.11 . (U) Analyzing national election results by age, the

generations appear to have voted along their ideological and
political tendencies. The majority of people in their 20s
(62 percent) and 30s (60.2 percent) voted for Roh, while the
majority of people in their 40s (50.8 percent) and 50s (65.5

percent) voted for Lee.

11.12. (U) Examining the 2002 election results by region, one
sees that the southwest (Honam) and southeast (Yeongnam)
voted almost exactly as they did in the 1997 presidential
elections. According to Gallup Korea data, in 2002, 93.2
percent of voters in Honam voted for Roh, which is nearly
identical to the 94.4 percent of Honam voters who voted for
Kim Dae-jung in 1997. In 2002, 75.5 percent of people in
Yeongnam voted for Lee Hoi-chang, compared with 66.9 percent
who voted for him in 1997. (NOTE: This does not include
votes for Rhee In-je, a former GNP candidate. After he lost
in the primaries, he formed a new political party to run
separately, so most of his votes would have gone to Lee if
Rhee didn't run. END NOTE.)

11.13. (U) However, it is noteworthy that younger voters in the
Yeongnam region voted closer to generational lines than
regional ones in 2002: only 61.1 percent of people in their
20s and 52.1 percent of voters in their 30s voted for Lee
(compared to 75.5 percent for Lee overall and 90.1 percent
for those aged 50 ) . So it appears that younger voters were
less influenced by their region's tendencies than older
voters. Demographically , Honam has 5,021,548 people and
Yeongnam has 12,701,303 people, representing 10.6 percent and
26.9 percent respectively of the entire population.

OUTLOOK FOR 2007 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION

11.14. (U) Professor Kim characterized the current voter mood

among those in their 20s and 30s as "confused, " due to the
failure of the Roh Administration to achieve real reform.
Asked to speculate on how voters would react to Park Geun-hye
as a presidential candidate, Professor Kim opined that she
could win Generation C's vote if she continues to play good
"image" politics. Younger voters react emotionally, not
necessarily rationally, he explained. They will ignore her
father's authoritarian regime and focus on the economic

miracle he achieved in Korea. If Park and Lee Myung-bak were
to run against each other, he predicted that the older
generation would split the vote between Park, out of
nostalgia for the "good old days," and Lee, who it perceived
as having stronger will than Park.

1.15. (U) Lessons from the 2002 election have been

well-digested. Two in particular are noteworthy. First,
some of the technology-aided mobilization tactics from the
2002 elections have been institutionalized and will likely
become standard practice for the 2007 elections, particularly
as more tech-savvy young Koreans come to voting age. Second,
politicians will continue to court the younger generation —
not only because they are the largest group demographically ,
but also because of the impact they made in 2002. The
political parties have already embraced some of the
technology tactics that the younger generation used in the
2002 elections in the local and by-elections.

COMMENT

1.16. (U) The younger generations impacted the 2002

presidential election more than any other election. Although
the media may have exaggerated stories about the youth
revolution and the generational differences in the 2002
elections, there seems to have been a legitimate trend of
young voters voting along generational, rather than regional,
lines .

VERSHBOW